US re-sanctions Iran, but EU and China resist; markets yawn; German factory orders slump; US banks relax standards, ASIC to embed ‘supervisors’ in banks; UST 10yr at 2.94%; oil up and gold down; NZ$1 = 67.3 USc; TWI-5 = 71

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Here’s our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the trade/tariff landscape just got messier.

The US is to reimpose sanctions on Iran, but the EU is to shield its companies from the effects, trying to preserve a hard-won deal over Iranian denuclearisation. China has said it will ignore the sanctions, taking the opportunity to increase its oil imports from the country, actually diverting orders from the US. Threats and counter-threats of ‘consequences’ are everywhere – although generally markets are yawning.

In Germany, there was a data surprise. Factory orders slumped -4% month-on-month in June. This was the biggest fall since January 2017. Economists had expected orders to essentially hold steady. They even fell on a year-on-year basis which is unusual. June industrial production data, due tomorrow, is expected to show a small retreat after a strong jump in May.

Loan officers at American banks reported easing lending standards for business loans for firms of all sizes while keeping terms for commercial real estate loans almost unchanged in the second quarter, a Federal Reserve survey shows.

In Australia, the drive for prescriptive regulation is gaining steam (even if it seems to have failed in the past). Now regulator ASIC wants to embed is own appointed ‘supervisors’ within banks. You have to wonder who is going to be responsible for failure if something untoward happens on their watch.

And today in Australia, their population will tick over 25 mln. We are expecting the New Zealand population to reach 4.9 mln in September sometime.

The UST 10yr yield retreated on the US re-imposition of Iran sanctions and the potential fallout with the EU and is now at 2.94%. Their 2-10 curve has slipped to +28 bps. The Chinese 10yr is at 3.47% (down -2 bps) while the New Zealand equivalent is now just under 2.80%, down -3 bps.

Gold is down -US$5 in New York and now a just on US$1,208/oz and that is now an eighteen month low for the yellow metal.

US oil prices are a little higher today and now just over US$69/bbl. The Brent benchmark is now just over US$73.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is starting today softer at 67.3 USc. On the cross rates we are unchanged however at 91.1 AUc, and at 58.3 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 71.

Bitcoin is now at US$6.917 and down -3% from this time yesterday. We track this rate daily in the interactive chart below.

This chart is animated here. For previous users, the animation process has been updated and works better now.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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