US focus on retail results; China & Russia try to go own way; ECB confirms stimulus dialback; EU confidence wanes; more Brexit details; UST 10yr at 3.07%; oil down, gold up; NZ$1 = 68.2 USc; TWI-5 = 72.5

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Here’s our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news holiday season trading is starting and investors are on tenterhooks.

First up we should note that Wall Street is closed today for their Thanksgiving weekend holiday. However all eyes will be on retailer results, especially for Black Friday. Among those with most to gain or lose are Amazon, and the parcel delivery firms like UPS and FedEx. The S&P500 ended their short week down -3.2% with investors selling out of retail stocks ahead of the holiday season.

China and Russia are moving to build a currency exchange and payments system that does not use the US dollar as its base. This will be interesting to watch, as two manipulated currencies trade with the influences directed by officials in Beijing and Moscow. Likely, somewhere in a dark corner an independent reference to the greenback will lurk, especially if one side feels they are getting shafted.

The release of the latest ECB minutes shows they are determined to dial back monetary stimulus even as some board members saw growing risks to the EU economy. In fact, these minutes show that a new round of cheap, multi-year loans to banks is off their agenda.

Overnight a sizable retreat in EU consumer confidence was reported, building on a trend that has been running all year. Most of the good gains in consumer sentiment built up in 2017 have now been unwound, and the brief period where optimists exceeded pessimists in Europe is now a distant memory.

Overnight, the central bank of South Africa has raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 6.75%. They say it is on the way to 7.5% by the end of 2020.

More details of the Brexit plan were revealed overnight. The deal will keep the UK in “equivalence” with EU laws but allow the UK to do some limited trade deals on its own. It will also limit free movement of people, but embed deep regulatory and customs cooperation. Basically the UK will need to move in future in line with EU laws. The governments might be near a deal, but it is unclear whether this upgraded deal can pass the London parliament. The British currency rose on the news. And this.

The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 3.07%. And their 2-10 curve is still just under +25 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.67% and down -3 bps, the China Govt 10yr is at 3.40%, unchanged, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.71% and also down -3 bps.

Gold is up +US$1 to US$1,227/oz.

US oil prices are as much as -US$1/bbl lower today. That puts them at only US$54/bbl. The Brent benchmark is also down, now just over US$62.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is starting today little changed at 68.2 USc. On the cross rates we are a tad lower at 93.9 AUc, and at 59.8 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 72.5.

Bitcoin is up today, now at US$4,445 and +1.2% higher than this time yesterday. This rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

This chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Daily exchange rates

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USD 

NZD

End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

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